[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 250835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL
REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A TRIMM PASS OVER DEBBY SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE IS
NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND THE LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS ARE A
LITTLE BIT DISPLACED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON
QUIKSCAT...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST A WEAKER SYSTEM. DEBBY IS
ABOUT TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND THAT COULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS THAT MAKE DEBBY A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM AFTER
RECURVATURE.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
REACH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND RECURVATURE
SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD
MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN
FACT...CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THIS INCREASES THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 22.9N  42.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.1N  44.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.8N  47.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  49.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N  50.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  50.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 39.0N  43.0W    55 KT...BECOMING-EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/0600Z 45.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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