[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/1500 UTC IS NEAR
20.4N 37.8W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS
955 NM/1535 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. FOR MORE
DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE CENTER FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.  A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY.
RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.   THIS WAVE DEPICTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
AFRICAN DUST THAT EXTENDS E ALL THE WAY TO AFRICA.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 76W-79W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER S NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND THE E
PACIFIC FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 82W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N30W 11N50W 11N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ TO SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W.
10-15 KT WINDS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-97W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
87W-92W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... DIFFLUENCE FROM TWO SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE MOST
LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE.  ONE LOW
IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W.  THE OTHER IS IS OVER THE GULF
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N96W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.  SEE ABOVE.
IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 86W-88W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR
21N76W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO HONDURAS.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N57W.  THAT
PUTS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N60W UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO ALL MOVE
W AND BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT
38N30W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N50W
27N75W.  AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST
N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 73W-78W.  AFRICAN DUST IS
OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM
5N-23N BETWEEN 50W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W.  A SIMILAR
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W.  SLY UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW OVER T.S. DEBBY WEAKENING THE STORM.  UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W.

$$
FORMOSA




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