[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 31.5W 0R ABOUT 435
NM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT
15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. DEBBY IS UNDERGOING SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ENVIRONMENT
HAS LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING AT THE CURRENT TIME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. DESPITE ITS STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION IS
W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE N EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. ILL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SHAPE IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA FROM
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS TO 17N BETWEEN 63W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT. ONLY A SLIGHT HINT OF LOW CLOUD CURVATURE IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N W OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 13N25W...DISTORTED BY T.S.
DEBBY THEN ALONG 11N33W 9N41W 12N51W 9N62W ACROSS N SOUTH
AMERICA TO JUST S OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 54W-57W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 60W-63W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N E OF 32W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND S OF 13N FROM 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC GULF NEAR 27N88W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA W COAST TO 94W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA N OF 24N E OF 92W WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 24N
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO
GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 92W TO OVER THE MEXICAN COAST. AN
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKERS IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY ARE THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THIS IS INDUCING A WEAK TROUGH
BETWEEN THESES RIDGES WHERE DRY UPPER AIR IS ONLY ABLE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 10N W OF 78W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE
TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA
NEAR 31N79W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S TO THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ENE TO BEYOND
BERMUDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N W OF
76W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER S FLORIDA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
N OF THE REGION SW THROUGH 32N50W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
26N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 55W-62W. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N54W AND COVERS
THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-70W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ W OF 50W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE E ATLC E OF 40W IN WHICH T.S. DEBBY IS EMBEDDED. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N38W
THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N62W
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. AFRICAN DUST SPREADS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS FROM
45W-70W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE SECOND SURGE FROM
20W-40W IN WHICH T.S. DEBBY IS EMBEDDED.

$$
WALLACE




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