[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR
15.9N 30.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO
IS 335 NM/625 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF DEBBY SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS
WAVE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. RESIDENTS WHO LIVE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THIS WAVE. THE CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 21N81W
JUST SOUTH OF CUBA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANTICYCLONE AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAN TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 16N16W 14N24W 12N30W 8N40W 9N49W 9N52W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AT 13N TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 81W AND 95W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SPINS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA
ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER LOW CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN AREAS OF
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W.
THE HIGH CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS HIGH CENTER REACHES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST...STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACCOMPANY THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE. THE
82W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...
IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF
WESTERN PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 34N47W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 30N53W...TO A LOW CENTER
NEAR 27N60W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE AREA OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND T.S. DEBBY AND
THE 34N48W-TURKS/CAICOS TROUGH. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IN THIS
AREA IS LARGELY EASTERLY...PUSHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 31N25W. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM 27N
TO 34N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

$$
MT



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