[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 27.5W 0R ABOUT
210 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 22/2100
UTC MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT.  A LARGE AMOUNT STABLE AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS N OF THE
CYCLONE. SOME OF THIS AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DEPRESSION SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT.  THE CYCLONE IS BREAKING
AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY.
CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 27W-29W.
VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH A PATCH OF
COOLER WATERS IS AHEAD.  FOR MORE DETAILS SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.  THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. AN INVERTED-V SHAPE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE
AREA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 59W-66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT. ONLY A SLIGHT HINT OF LOW CLOUD CURVATURE IS
NOTED ON VIS IMAGES ABOUT THE AXIS.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
75W-79W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 14N27W 9N35W 8N50W 9N60W.
BESIDES CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-33W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 19N.  LIGHT 5-10 KT SELY WINDS PREVAIL.  A STATIONARY
FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
FROM  28N-32N BETWEEN 89W-96W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING GULF WATERS FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 88W-91W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE
GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N87W.
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AREA.  REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  FURTHER S...AN ACTIVE ITCZ WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG
10N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 80W.
NLY FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  SWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE ITCZ TO REMAIN ACTIVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC NEAR 37N38W.  A SMALL
SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS HOWEVER...ALONG 28N70W
24N74W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 68W-71W...AND OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
74W-79W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.  DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS.  A LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 28N61W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 53W-57W.  SELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
T.D. FOUR PRODUCING LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  SAHARAN DUST IS
WIDESPREAD IN THE MID-LEVELS SPREADING TO 70W FROM 11N-25N
ACCORDING TO THE MILKY LOOK ON VIS IMAGES AND THE CIMSS SAL
TRACKING PRODUCT.

$$
FORMOSA



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