[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MASKING THE
CLASSIC SATELLITE SIGNATURE. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N31W 9N48W 8N61W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-16N E OF 21W TO JUST INLAND
OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE 10N16W-6N24W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-41W...WITHIN 120
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-50W...AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF
N OF 27N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE S GULF FROM THE SW
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W TO A
SECOND UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO AND
IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S GULF TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA S OF 27N WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27W E OF 85W
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE S CARIBBEAN FROM N NICARAGUA ALONG 16N75W ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE OVER W
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF A LINE FROM THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NW TO TO THE MONA
PASSAGE WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N
ACROSS CUBA FROM 75W-80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA MOVING INTO THE FAR S CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 9N ACROSS THAT
AREA. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N79W AND IS
GENERATING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 74W
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS
SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N60W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 23N66W-30N63W. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THIS FEATURE IS ONLY ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 60W-66W. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 25N66W IN THE W ATLC. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY MOSTLY BENIGN FEATURES
WHICH INCLUDE AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N42W AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
22N28W BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE E ATLC NO SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE MUCH ATLC WITH THE SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE
REGION. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF AFRICA DUST CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO NEAR 50W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net