[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF
19N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH AN INVERTED-V
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 62W-64W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N27W 9N52W 8N61W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 5N29W-10N36W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 24W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 39W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E/CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS OVER THE
N GULF N OF 24N W OF 89W. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A
TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE SW GULF CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AND IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E GULF TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE GULF AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27W E OF 86W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST W OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N81W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 75W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA ALONG
14N70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE OVER S AND E
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 16N W OF 67W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 77W-84W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 28N78W EXTENDING A
TROUGH W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE
W ATLC N OF 21N W OF 72W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1012 MB LOW INLAND
OVER THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N W OF 76W ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 30N60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 50W-65W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BEING INDUCED
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 27N46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
MOSTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 20N21W WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE E ATLC SO NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC WITH THE SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF AFRICA DUST CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO
NEAR 45W.

$$
WALLACE



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