[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
20W-22W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 KT.  A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NEAR 10N 41W.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 61W/62W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.  ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD IS MASKING
THE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N17W 9N30W 10N41W 7N50W 8N60W. OUTSIDE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 14W-16W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N89W.  5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED GOING ANTICYCLONIC
AROUND THE HIGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 92W-94W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 80W-83W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 22N96W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 94W-101W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N AND E OF 85W.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO.  ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...A 1006 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
70W-78W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 61W-66W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 84W-88W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE N
BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-83W.  A SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N80W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N60W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N81W
DRIFTING N.  FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 55W-58W...AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 57W-61W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS
NEAR 28N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 73W-85W.
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 30N60W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-65W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER W
AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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