[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191822
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
IT WAS RE-LOCATED FROM ITS 19/0600Z POSITION BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ALL THE INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH THIS
WAVE. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALSO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE 19/1200 UTC POSITION IS BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NEAR 10.5N
40.5W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. A TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR
37N37W TO 27N39W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
21N41W TO 17N46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
60W/61W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE WAVE DUE TO THE PREVAILING
WIND FLOW SITUATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IN RESPONSE
TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE 25N62W ATLANTIC
OCEAN. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR
OVER INTERIOR MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N16W 11N22W 10N26W 8N39W 8N43W 8N59W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REACHING
THE COASTS OF GUINEA FROM 9N TO 11N...AND FROM GUINEA-BISSAU TO
SENEGAL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS...GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO EASTERN
GULF WATERS AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 28N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE 22N MEXICO COAST LOW CENTER AND THE ON-RUSHING UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
30N WEST OF 76W...COVERING FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH OF CUBA AND ABOUT 175 NM WEST OF
JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER HAS CARVED OUT ONE BIG TROUGH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FLOW MOVES AROUND THE CENTER TO NICARAGUA...
IT SHOOTS OUT TO THE EAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAXIMA OF WIND GOES FROM THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW
CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE...AND IT SHOOTS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS OF THIS SEA. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST 40 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W
AND 85W. THE ITCZ MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
ONLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N81W...ABOUT
50 NM EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE LATEST BURST OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOES FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N BETWEEN 80W
AND 81W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAHAMAS AND OVER INTERIOR FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO
30N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 23N69W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N62W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER GOES
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
31N54W 25N57W 20N59W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 37N37W TO 27N39W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER NEAR 21N41W TO 17N46W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
27W.

$$
MT




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