[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION
OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
23N MOVING W 15 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE N PORTION
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ENHANING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W/91W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED
OVER THOSE AREAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N29W 10N41W 9N62W THEN
ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE
E GULF N OF 25N E OF 85W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE SW GULF IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N96W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR THIS IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 95W FROM 21N-27N. A
SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF CUBA S OF 24N FROM 83W-86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N81W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 76W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N FROM HAITI TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COSTA RICA TO ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING
A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
AND WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT
AREA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N76W COVERING THE AREA N OF
23N W OF 72W AND IS GENERATING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
E GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED 1013 MB LOW JUST E OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE LOW FROM 29N-31N W OF 78W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS SSE OF BERMUDA NEAR 25N63W
INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LOWS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 21N FROM 51W-66W. THE UPPER LOW SSE OF
BERMUDA IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 18N50W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-16N W OF 56W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N38W S TO 20N43W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE N
OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS MOSTLY DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 21N27W
WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE E
ATLC SO NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWERS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF AFRICA DUST MOVING OVER THE FAR E ATLC S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR
30W.

$$
WALLACE






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