[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 18W
S OF 19N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING W 10 KT.  INVERTED-V IMAGERY IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 55W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N20W 9N30W 10N45W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 28W-35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
38W-41W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N89W
25N93W 20N94W MOVING W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 88W-93W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 89W-94W.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FLORIDA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED NOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR
23N94W MOVING W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN
90W-102W.  EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 9N BETWEEN 60W-90W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-90W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF
JAMAICA NEAR 19N80W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND
INFLUENCE CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE ITCZ AND A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  FURTHER
E... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N62W.  A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 27N40W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
26N60W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-33N BETWEEN 52W-70W.  A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
10N58W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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