[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 22N33W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N32W. THESE
TWO LOW CENTERS ACCOMPANIED THE WAVE YESTERDAY ALSO. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W IN BROAD SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A BROAD FIELD OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
43W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 21N82W
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THIS SWIRL.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N15W 13N24W 13N30W 12N35W 10N44W 10N52W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W
AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM GUYANA NEAR 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR
30N96W JUST NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH THE 30N96W HIGH
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...AND FROM 24N TO
26N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 70W...THANKS TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.
A SEPARATE CELL OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA...IN AN AREA OF THE ITCZ.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 15N86W IN EASTERN HONDURAS
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXISTS FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 75W AND 93W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PULLING SOME OF THE
CLOUDINESS WITH THE 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 22N61W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N78W ABOUT 60 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE
UNLIKELY AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
31N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 29N78W 30N75W 32N72W. A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N27W WITH NO NEARBY DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 32N39W TO 27N44W AND
26N48W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 26N48W TO 30N56W...AND
TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N61W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N66W...AND
THEN IT CURVES NORTHWARD TO 34N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N51W 30N56W...AND FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM
NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE DEEP TROPICS IS ALONG THE LINE 4N25W 15N29W.

$$
MT




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