[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT.  A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
AND INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW A CLEAR CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS ESPECIALLY N OF 13N...THOUGH
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING
THE JAMAICAN CHANNEL AND ALSO THE WATERS JUST N OF ERN CUBA. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE COASTAL
HONDURAS/NRN NICARAGUA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ALSO LIES NEAR 10N79W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 13N31W 13N34W 11N43W 9N47W...AND
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 8N69W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...JUST SOUTH
OF THE AXIS. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W...AND
ALSO JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
GULF FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING IN THE
MIDDLE GULF NEAR 26N87W AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. A WEAK 1012MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR
25N88W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NNE THROUGH THIS LOW
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 28N88W. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
GULF. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. THESE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE WRN PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH WILL THEN
BUILD IN ITS WAKE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDING S THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH
CENTRAL PANAMA. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN...WITH
AN UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER WRN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
SMALL UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL CUBA IS AFFECTING THE
NEARBY NRN CARIBBEAN WATERS. UPPER WESTERLIES SSW OF THE ATLC
UPPER LOW NEAR 21N60W IS AFFECTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. 10 TO 20
KT TRADE FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS THE SW PORTION
OF THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS WITH A 1008MB LOW OVER NW VENEZUELA.
LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN IN TACT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 120 MILES EAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 25 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS SEEN
SPINNING NEAR 30N62W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
THIS LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W
AND 68W. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 21N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN NEAR THIS UPPER LOW FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/SMALL UPPER
LOW NEAR 22N33W...BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC FROM 7N TO 30N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 50W. THIS REGION IS ALSO
DOMINATED BY VAST FAIR WEATHER...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

$$
WILLIS


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