[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N76W DRIFTING W. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
31N-33N BETWEEN 77W-78W.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT.  A
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUD WITH CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT.  A BROAD FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS
NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  AGAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 14N30W 10N40W 8N50W 8N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 47W-54W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 57W-62W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 90W-94W.  ANOTHER 1015 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER
GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 83W-86W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W MOVING W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 80W-92W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...W OF 92W...HAS UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW.  EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF HISPANIOLA SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 8N
BETWEEN 60W-90W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
60W-72W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
77W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N59W.  NLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 12N AND E OF 70W.  AN  ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA
NEAR 16N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 70W-90W.
EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE CUBA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN
60W-85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.  FURTHER E... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N63W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW ALONG
26N64W 30N68W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
31N55W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 28N45W
28N50W 31N55W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N58W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N45W.  ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N33W.  A RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM
10N-30N E OF 25W.

$$
FORMOSA




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