[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161826
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 33N76W.
THE DUAL LOW CENTERS OF YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA COMBINED INTO ONE LOW CENTER DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND MOVED TO THE NORTH FOR THE PRESENT
SITUATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
27N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL
MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A BROAD FIELD OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT...PASSING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 17N16W 14N27W 11N31W 9N39W 7N52W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 11N32W 7N42W 6N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA AT 9N...ACROSS TRINIDAD...TO 14N NEAR SAINT LUCIA
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEING PULLED
TO THE NORTHEAST A BIT BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
19N59W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 70W...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE SAME LOW
CENTER THAT WAS JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS 24 HOURS AGO. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW
CENTER TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N86W
OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 27N87W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N87W AND 23N87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEARBY WATERS FROM 23.5N IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 27N NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
87W AND 92W. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE GULF WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. THIS AREA HAS GROWN IN SIZE SINCE YESTERDAY.
A COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...NOT PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS
AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION ON TOP OF THE 1013 MB LOW CENTER
NEAR 33N76W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
CENTER GOES ACROSS CUBA INTO A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N81W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS CUBA
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 76W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 19N59W LOW CENTER
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 68W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
NORTH OF 15N84W 14N75W 11N70W 13N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ITCZ ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W
AND 83W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W STRETCHING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REALLY WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR
19N59W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING SIX HOURS AGO FROM 18N
TO 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN IN
THIS AREA NOW. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 29N30W
TO 30N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 30N34W TO A 33N40W TRIPLE
POINT. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 33N40W TO 28N48W...CURVING TO
30N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 30N54W TO 31N57W TO
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N61W TO 26N64W CURVING
TO 34N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 20N TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER NEAR 32N29W HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS NEAR 23N31W WITH NO PRECIPITATION AROUND IT.

$$
MT


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