[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 31N76W.  A
TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA ALONG 27N77W
25N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY IF
NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS S OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N24W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT.  AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 69W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 19N16W 11N30W 9N40W 11N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N88W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR
30N80W.  NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER FLORIDA.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL NELY FLOW.  EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF PUERTO RICO SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...A
1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 75W-85W...MOSTLY DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TO AN ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS W ALONG 9N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N57W.  NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 12N AND E OF 65W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
65W-85W.  EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 60W-85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.  FURTHER E... A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N61W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW ALONG
28N66W 31N70W 31N75W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW
TO 31N54W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 27N34W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AS
MENTIONED ABOVE... DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE ARE
CENTERED NEAR 30N80W... AND 20N57W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N45W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W.  A RIDGE
IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net