[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12N21W ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W
AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE 14N20W-14.5N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROADER AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
18W-24W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 20N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS
SLIGHTLY VISIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RATHER DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THUS THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W
15 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-67W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS ILL-DEFINED AND IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 94W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 8N34W 8N44W 12N56W ALONG THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS PANAMA JUST S OF COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NE GULF THIS MORNING
COMPLEMENTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN NE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS IS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE GULF
N OF 23N E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF SE
LOUISIANA N OF 26N FROM 87W-90W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A CUT OFF LOW/TROUGH IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS JUST CLIPS THE NW GULF. THE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A 1016 MB HIGH
IS LOCATED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE W COAST OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N
W OF 78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 16N68W AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA
TO OVER COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THAT
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY AGAIN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM THE E. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CUT OFF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 32N78W SW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W SW THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW OVER THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W CONTINUING W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 30N FROM 50W-70W. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W THROUGH A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N62W TO NEAR 30N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N FROM 60W-70W ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IN SPITE OF THE
RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 21N55W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN 46W-60W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 52W-59W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM TRINIDAD ACROSS BARBADOS TO 17N59W.
A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW IN THE NE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N24W TO 26N39W ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER LOW IS N WELL N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W
FROM AFRICA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH REMAINING NEAR
27N46W. DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE 1012 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION BEING DRAWN N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF
THE E ATLC UPPER RIDGE.

$$
WALLACE



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