[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 14N22W ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 17W-25W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 30W...HOWEVER THE
WAVE HAS BROADENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MAY ACTUALLY BE
CLOSER TO 33W AT 15/0000 UTC MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS SLIGHTLY VISIBLE ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...THUS THERE ARE NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
13N69W-20N64W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND IS MOSTLY IN THE
E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 92W-95W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N26W 9N40W 12N62W ACROSS
THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO JUST S OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-200 NM OF THE AXIS 30W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA THEN NE TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA COAST. THIS IS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE GULF
N OF 24N E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 26N83W-30N85W. THIS TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IN THE W ATLC
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS JUST CLIPS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE
W CARIBBEAN JUST CLIPS THE FAR SE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE SW GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS ALL
HAS COMBINED TO SET UP AN AREA OF A CULL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST SW
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N83W WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NEAR
16N68W AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 64W/65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER COSTA
RICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ITCZ AXIS IN THAT AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
DRY AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH N OF THE REGION AND IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE
US AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD COVERING THE W ATLC
N OF 30N FROM 55W-70W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION NEAR 32N50W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N62W TO
A WELL ESTABLISHED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N74W THEN AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
27N78W CONTINUING W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE 1014 MB LOW. A BROAD UPPER
HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N FROM
60W-75W ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 64W/65W IN SPITE OF THE RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N54W COVERING THE
AREA FROM 15N27N BETWEEN 46W-58W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 125 NM OF
LINE FROM BARBADOS TO 20N54W. A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW IN THE NE
ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION
ALONG 32N25W TO 28N34W ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS N WELL N OF THE
REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ATLC HAS
FINALLY BROKEN DOWN WITH A 1020 MB HIGH REMAINING NEAR 27N50W.
DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE 1012 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
BEING DRAWN N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF THE E
ATLC UPPER RIDGE.

$$
WALLACE




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