[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A VIGOROUS 1009MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND HEAVY SQUALLS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT
HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TOMORROW. INTERESTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL EXHIBITS AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...BUT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE
ITCZ VICINITY REMAINS LIMITED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N...NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN..MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS...THOUGH LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS
DO NOT REVEAL A SURFACE LOW...AND THUS IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE 12Z MAP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...WITH THE STRONGEST SMALL PATCH OF
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 14N66W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE GETTING
MASKED BY THE CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF THE EPAC WAVE ALONG
106W. OVERALL VERY LITTLE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN
200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N21W 10N29W 9N32W 9N45W TO NEAR
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. OUTSIDE OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
REGION WITHIN 200NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND THE AFRICAN
COAST. THE MOST NOTABLE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA IS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 59W...AND A
SMALL CLUSTER NEAR 12N26W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE AND E GULF
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE NE GULF BETWEEN SW FLORIDA AND COASTAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI.
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION THAT
EXTENDED INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING FROM SRN
MEXICO HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SAN ANGELO TEXAS IS
AFFECTING THE WRN GULF. THE NE GULF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER NE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR...CONFLUENCE...AND FAIR WEATHER...FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W IS PRODUCING FAIRLY LIGHT CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PORTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN CARIBBEAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS IS STILL EVIDENT...THOUGH APPEARS AS IT IS BECOMING
SQUASHED/ELONGATED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. OVERALL MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND FAIR
WEATHER. A SMALL PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR
14N66W IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. THE OTHER AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
IS JUST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA WHICH MAY BE GETTING SOME
INFLUENCE FROM THE ITCZ AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...15 TO 25 KT TRADES CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
QUIKSCAT DATA DID SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE S PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SE FLORIDA COAST. THE
FIRST IS A 1013MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THIS LOW TODAY FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
28N74W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THE THIRD LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N63W...BUT VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR
25N71W. AN UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HISPANIOLA INTO
THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING
NEAR 23N51W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED JUST W OF THIS
UPPER LOW FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N19W AND
EXTENDS W TO NEAR 40W. A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 26N47W.
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF AFRICA IS EXPERIENCING DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER...FROM 17N
TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

$$
WILLIS


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