[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA IS ALONG 22W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 19N WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED
INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW
CLOUD SWIRL IS NOW BENEATH THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO
12N61W. ALTHOUGH WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE 19N49W-16N55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING
W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS TO THE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORCING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE W OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N35W 6N46W 11N61W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
10N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
23W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUES TO BE QUIET
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH IN
THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
OVER NE MEXICO AND THE W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 19N FROM 94W-96W.  OTHERWISE THE
GULF REMAINS CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE BENEATH THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 2N-20N W OF 78W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W AND BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DRY IN SPITE OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE E US AND INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 29N W OF 55W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NE FLORIDA NEAR 31N78W CONTINUING W JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA THEN PULLING UP OVER THE SE US. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 66W-80W AND N OF 30N TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 58W-66W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
JUST TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
27N78W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING E TO 50W. AN UPPER HIGH IS
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N58W ENHANCING SHOWERS/
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W IN
SPITE OF THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION...VERY LITTLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS OCCURRING IN THE ATLC BASIN. THERE ARE
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...NONE OF WHICH ARE CAUSING MUCH
INSTABILITY. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW LOCATED JUST N
OF THE SOUTHERN MOST BAHAMAS NEAR 23N71W AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW IS NEAR 27N37W. THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA. DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED HIGHS...1019 MB HIGHS NEAR 31N25W AND 26N47W AND A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 24N63W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net