[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 17W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS... AND HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 12W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE
HOWEVER LACKS DEEP CONVECTION DUE A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT.  THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE
CURVATURE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE APEX
ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N20W 8N35W 11N47W 10N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-24W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 28N.  10 KT WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W MOVING W.  A SMALL
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN
30 NM RADIUS OF 26N94W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN
83W-100W.  AN AREA OF UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM
18N-28N BETWEEN 90W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE THE GULF HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS TOMORROW DUE TO SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... A 1006 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER JAMAICA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS DOTS INLAND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W.  SURFACE WIND
VELOCITIES ARE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO AT 19N67W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W.  A 1018 MB
HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N60W.  A 1014 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N38W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N36W 28N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 31W-37W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
PUERTO RICO AT 19N67W.  A HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
14N52W.  ANOTHER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N33W.

$$
FORMOSA


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