[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A STRONG WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS AT 60W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT...ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13.5N. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
IF NECESSARY. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W
HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. A NEW AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
15N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM TRINIDAD TO BARBADOS...AND FROM
MARTINIQUE TO GUADELOUPE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF
24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS OUT FROM A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND REACHES AT LEAST MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SWINGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
RIGHT AT THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS PRECIPITATION
PROBABLY IS NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 10N25W 10N35W 9N41W 10N50W 12N58W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N20W 6N30W 5N40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 22N TO 29N
BETWEEN 84W AND 95W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. A BROADER AND LARGER SCALE
AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
COVERS THE AREA FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE  NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...AND EVEN REACHING THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER COVERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
THAT LOW IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO.
SUPERIMPOSE UPON THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
RACING AHEAD OF THE 60W TROPICAL WAVE/1011 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL-WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA ALONG THE BORDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SPREADING CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AS THE 60W TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW CENTER JUST
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AZORES TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 31N48W
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N EAST
OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 50W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N41W.
A TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N39W 25N40W AND
23N44W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N53W TO A 1019 MB HIGH
CENTER NEAR 27N70W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net