[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A STRONG WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS SET TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
14N. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
58W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPAN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CHAIN
OF ISLANDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 9N40W 10N46W 11N48W 12N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 42W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH
OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS OUT FROM A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND REACHES AT LEAST MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS SOUTH OF 14N
WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 10N23W 11N34W 9N40W 10N50W 13N56W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 6N30W 4N40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. A BROADER AND LARGER SCALE
AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND COVERS THE AREA FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...REACHING THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS BEING PUSHED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER COVERS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THAT LOW IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO. SUPERIMPOSE UPON THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE RACING AHEAD OF THE 59W TROPICAL WAVE/
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL-WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA ALONG THE BORDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SPREADING CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AS THE 59W TROPICAL WAVE GETS READY TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AZORES TO A SECOND
LOW CENTER NEAR 32N49W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC
OCEAN LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS...FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 33N41W. A TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 30N38W AND 27N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N33W TO 25N40W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 26N54W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N71W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net