[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE BEST AREA IN ORDER TO SEE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 34W
AND 40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE
WAVE. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF
15N28W AND ANOTHER CELL IS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16N30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N32W 9N37W 11N41W
12N44W...AND 9N41W 10N44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE. THE LOW CENTER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY AN
OPEN TROPICAL WAVE. THE POSSIBILITIES OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE BECOMING FEWER WITH TIME.
THE WAVE STILL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ACROSS SOME AREAS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO 13N82W.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. TWO OTHER ISOLATED CELLS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N16W 10N32W 10N38W 12N49W 11N54W 10N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATER FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 82W AND
86W. ISOLATED RAIN CELLS ARE BEING PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST LOW CENTER...
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
FLORIDA LOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EAST OF 90W. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEST OF 90W IS EASTERLY AROUND
A RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A. SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ONSHORE IN THE AREA BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND
TAMPICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 92W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN
THE WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO. THE NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SIX HOURS HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH TIME. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STATE OF
JALISCO MEXICO ALSO HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SOME LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION  STILL MAY BE LINGERING A BIT NOW.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON
A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST AXIS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA ALONG THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NORTHERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W
AND 76W...IN BETWEEN MONTERIA AND BUCARAMANGA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N80W 11N82W 12N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN BELIZE
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER NEAR 23N69W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 38N29W ABOUT
60 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...TO 32N40W...TO A SECOND LOW
CENTER NEAR 30N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONNECTS A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N51W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 28N76W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 34N42W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER.

$$
MT



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