[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090629
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N51W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS LOW CENTER IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AND
ITS THREAT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH TIME. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A CELL OF
WEAKENING PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
52W AND 53W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN SQUALLS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE BEST AREA IN ORDER TO SEE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND
36W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF
24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO 13N82W. AN
EARLIER AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. TWO OTHER ISOLATED CELLS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N17W 14N23W 10N30W 10N35W 11N49W 11N54W 10N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 6N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W
AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N34W 10N38W 12N43W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WESTERN MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF HERMOSILLO MEXICO.
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 20N104W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING FROM EAST
TO WEST THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD
BEEN FLOATING AROUND IN THE BAHAMAS FINALLY HAS PASSED ON TOP
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWARD
FLORIDA COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
4 TO 5 HOURS AGO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS NOW COVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND GULF COAST WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA
LOW CENTER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
AS IT DIPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LOW CENTER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 37N29W ABOUT 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
32N39W...26N48W TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 30N60W.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N31W TO 26N33W. ANOTHER
RIDGE GOES FROM 27N40W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N53W...EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N/28N. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 35N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING 30N
TO 34N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

$$
MT


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