[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N49W...OR
ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 49W-51W.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS MUCH MORE
EVIDENT IN TODAYS LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER E CUBA THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
PORTION OF THIS WAVE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  EXTENSIVE
DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPRESSING
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACTIVITY THERE.  FURTHER S...THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 13N31W 11N40W 13N48W 10N60W.
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS LESS PROMINENT THAN IT HAS BEEN
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N97W
18N93W MOVING W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.  FURTHER E...A PATCH OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 80W-90W MOVING W.  EVENING AIRMASS HEATING HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W MOVING W.
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE PRIMARILY ELY FROM 10-15 KT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY NE WIND FLOW.  A SMALL LOW IS ALONG THE
COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND MOVING W.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE
GULF ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY OVER E CUBA WILL
ALSO ADVECT TO W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA
IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE CONCERNING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.  10-20 KT TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA PRIMARILY
DUE TO INLAND EVENING AIRMASS HEATING.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ELY FLOW
DOMINATES OVER THE SEA.   EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION N OF 14N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SOME NEW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W.  A 1016 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS
S TO 27N44W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-34N
BETWEEN 40W-43W.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS ALSO N OF THE AREA...N OF
THE AZORES...NEAR 46N26W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO NEAR
29N33W.  A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N E OF 70W TO AFRICA MOVING
W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W.  AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N57W.  A
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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