[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080631 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...RTD
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006

TRANSMISSION NOT COMPLETE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N44W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ...POSSIBLY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE BEST AREA IN ORDER TO SEE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 25W AND
33W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH
OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. EARLIER SHOWERS FROM 14N TO
18N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 15N17W 13N26W 13N29W 12N42W 11N47W 9N61W.
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING IN AERIAL
COVERAGE AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE WARMING
AS THIS AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FROM MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL. SOME CELLS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN SENEGAL. THIS PRECIPITATION
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS EXIST FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA COAST AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
INTERIOR MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WATERS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM A BAHAMAS LOW CENTER
NEAR 25N76W TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER NEAR
18N82W. ISOLATEDMODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CLEAR AND REALLY
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM
THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW HAS BECOME MORE OF A SMALLER-SCALE
LOW CENTER SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 68W...AND NORTH OF
11N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W. A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS IMPARTING A BIT OF CYCONIC FLOW TO THE TROPICAL DIVERSION.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE FLOW
AROUND THE 25N76W LOW CENTER. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N66W 24N69W
TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING UNDER THIS RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 37N29W ABOUT
130 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
33N40W...TO 27N49W...TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 20N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING AT THE BASE OF THE 37N29W 20N57W TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 28N TO 38N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 35N41W
TO 30N41W AND 24N45W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
30N64W.

$$
MT


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