[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N42W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER.  A BAND OF CONVECTION IS W OF THE
CENTER...IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER...AND IS DISSIPATING.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER SEA TEMPERATURES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  A SEPARATE
SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 15N20W. THIS SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS
WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER HISPANIOLA EXTENDING NORTH FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-73W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 11N30W 12N42W 9N60W.  AN AREA
OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 12W-16W MOVING W TOWARDS THE COAST.  ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S AND STILL INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
11W-14W MOVING W TOWARDS THE COAST.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 28W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
29N89W 23N90W MOVING W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 91W-93W.  FURTHER E...A
PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-84W MOVING W AND DISSIPATING.
EVENING AIRMASS HEATING HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W MOVING W.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF ARE PRIMARILY ELY FROM 10-15 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W.  ELY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WITH BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE THUS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT
THE GULF ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WILL
ALSO ADVECT TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE CONCERNING HISPANIOLA. 10-20
KT TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA PRIMARILY DUE TO INLAND EVENING
AIRMASS HEATING.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DIFFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N73W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER W CUBA
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION N OF 14N DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SOME NEW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINE OF THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE N OF THE AREA ALONG 35N BETWEEN
40W-70W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS ALSO N OF THE AREA...N OF THE
AZORES...NEAR 44N26W.  THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC THUS HAS MOSTLY
LIGHT ELY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N...W OF 20W TO FLORIDA. A
BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N E OF 55W TO AFRICA MOVING W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N73W.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
21N56W MOVING W.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
10N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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