[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW
CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AT
14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 11N TO 19N
BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM TRINIDAD NEAR 11N61W TO 14N63W 18N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N65W 23N67W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 15N17W 14N20W 12N23W 11N30W 11N35W 11N44W 11N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FAR WEST TEXAS
NEAR EL PASO TO HIDALGO DEL PARRAL TO ZACATECAS IN INTERIOR
MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N111W 22N109W IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND AS FAR NORTHEAST AS
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS NEAR 27N TO 32N IN TEXAS BETWEEN
94W AND 98W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 140 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH
GOES FROM THIS CENTER NORTHWARD TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS
IN ONE DIRECTION...AND TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE OTHER
DIRECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE SWINGS
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
23N TO 29N EAST OF 92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAK AND SMALL
REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.D. CHRIS FROM
SIX HOURS AGO FINALLY HAS DISAPPEARED...NOT EASY TO FIND.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 22N TO 28N. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER IS WITHIN 200 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N65W 27N71W 24N74W 23N79W 23N83W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 85W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE RULE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTH OF
17N WEST OF 82W AND THE AREA AROUND THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE.
MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW APPEARS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF PANAMA...WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AND THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR
37N25W JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
32N44W TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 22N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS EXIST FROM 28N TO 38N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. A FEW
CELLS OF SHOWERS EXIST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N32W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N40W TO 28N41W
AND 24N45W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N64W.

$$
MT


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