[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 14N.
A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W.

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N37W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
38W AND 41W. ANOTHER SUCH MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
THE AREA FORMERLY BETWEEN 41W AND 43W HAS DISSIPATED.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM SAINT VINCENT TO GUADELOUPE...AND FROM ST.KITTS AND NEVIS
TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST WEST OF ANGUILLA...AND FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 64W AND 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 15N17W 14N19W 12N23W 11N30W 11N35W 11N44W 11N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO INTERIOR MEXICO IN BETWEEN SAN LUIS
POTOSI AND LEON. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS OF LOS MOCHIS ON THE MEXICO EASTERN
PACIFIC COAST...AND A SECOND SIMILAR AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IS MORE TO THE NORTH FROM 29N TO 30N ALONG 110W ENCOMPASSING
HERMOSILLO MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION
WAS IN BETWEEN AUSTIN AND COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER
NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A RIDGE SWINGS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. THE WEAK AND SMALL REMNANT SURFACE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.D. CHRIS IS NEAR 23.8N 85.4W.
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N87W 22N87W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW CENTER IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N66W 27N71W 24N74W 23N78W 23N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE RULE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTH OF
17N WEST OF 82W. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION
FROM SAINT VINCENT TO ANGUILLA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GO FROM THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER SOUTHWARD FOR 130 NM ALONG
THE WESTERN COLOMBIA COAST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ
ARE IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR
36N25W JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
33N44W TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 23N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS EXIST FROM 28N TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A FEW CELLS
OF SHOWERS EXIST FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N28W TO 25N34W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N40W TO 25N45W.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N65W.

$$
MT


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