[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 19W S OF 20N MOVING W AT
10 KT.  WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED ON UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSIS... HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW TRAILS THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 21N
WITH SOME TURNING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE.  CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
59W-64W.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT TROUGH MONDAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. A WIND
SURGE IS FOLLOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 11N30W 12N40 11N50W 13N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS...IS OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 27N84W 22N84W.  REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W MOVING W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 90W.
ANOTHER SMALL LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N89W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 86W-92W.
THE BASE OF A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 23N AND
E OF 87W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT
THE GULF ESPECIALLY W OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE CONCERNING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  10-20 KT TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N VENEZUELA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 70W-76W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DIFFLUENCE
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W...AND ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE 20N77W 23N85W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N63W.  A 1015 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
SW TO 25N46W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES
NEAR 42N45W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO 28N32W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N52W.  A
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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