[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060629
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR
11N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.
ONE BIG BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EXISTS FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W
AND 41W. ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE SWIRLING
AROUND THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIES
THIS NUMBER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N16W 8N24W 8N33W 8N38W 9N46W 11N50W 11N53W 9N58W 9N63W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
20W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA YESTERDAY NOW IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N89W
28N92W 30N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...HAVING MOVED FROM CUBA
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS IS MOVING FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY NOTHING BUT DRY AIR NEAR 14N76W.
DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 18N. LOW CLOUDS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY HINT AT SOME FORM OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N68W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING ITS WAY FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE 25N68W LOW CENTER IN ORDER TO COVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS MOVE ACROSS 32N TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TO 27N...AND THEN CURVE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
BEYOND GEORGIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
A 34N39W LOW CENTER TO 28N42W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
26N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER
TO A 1016 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 30N42W...AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO 26N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO 28N32W TO 23N41W.
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 28N57W. A RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
BORDER.

$$
MT


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