[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 05/1800 UTC NEAR 11N30W REMAINING
NEAR STATIONARY. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE AND THE ABOVE LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MID
LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 25W-37W.
CONVECTION/SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN
WITH SOME TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION/SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N23W 10N29W 9N38W 12N47W
8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 9N-17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 26W-40W AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N86W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED AT 05/2100 UTC OFF THE COAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA NEAR 29N88W WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE S
NEAR 27N90W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS DEVELOPING A
RATHER LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-97W. A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE SE SEA BREEZE ARE MOVING INTO THE FAR E GULF BUT
WILL BE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS THE LEAVE LAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS E CUBA AND THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS...A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THE N COAST NEAR 22N77W
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER E CUBA
E OF 81W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE S
COAST. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER W JAMAICA COVER THE AREA
WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N78.5W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W
PRODUCING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 15N W OF 80W BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
RATHER CLOUD FREE DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S
OF 17N WITH NO GALES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS E CUBA AND THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS...A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THE N COAST NEAR 22N77W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 27N76W
GENERATING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER E CUBA.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE E GULF IS GIVING THE FAR W ATLC SE FLOW AND
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NOW REACHING OVER THE S FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR S FLORIDA TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CUBAN COAST
AND BE IN THE E GULF SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N67W IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 40W-60W...INCLUDING ALSO THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N60W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 31W-50W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W TO A DEVELOPING 1014 MB
LOW NEAR 30N42W TO NEAR 26N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 37W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 23N18W TO NEAR 22N30W AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AFRICAN DUST IS ONCE AGAIN MOVING OFF
THE AFRICAN COAST AND EXTENDS S OF 23N TO NEAR 40W THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA.

$$
WALLACE



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