[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR
21.5N 75.6W...OR ABOUT 130 NM/240 KM EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
T.D. CHRIS IS MOVING WEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS
HAS WEAKENED AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 16N...FROM GUATEMALA
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/
HONDURAS AND BELIZE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N17W 11N35 11N45W 9N50W 8N56W 8N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W
AND 39W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 25W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A LOW CENTER IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS TO SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT BORDER AREAS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
ALL THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN
100W AND 107W JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IN BETWEEN HERMOSILLO AND CHIHUAHUA. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION
WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS IS FOUND FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
103W AND 106W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT MEXICO TO THE SOUTH...AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF LOW CENTER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR THE BAHAMAS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS IS WEAKENING AND FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER CUBA TODAY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE 22N66W LOW
CENTER WHICH WAS FOILING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF T.D. CHRIS
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 22N66W LOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 74W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N47W 31N40W 35N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 34N27W TO 26N37W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N...
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
MT


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