[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 042034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
FINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB.  DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB
CENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE.  FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT
BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM
GRAND TURK.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION
TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER.  GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
WEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT
INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO
NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
NOT HAPPEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 21.4N  72.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.7N  74.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 22.1N  76.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  79.4W    30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 23.2N  82.0W    30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 24.2N  87.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  92.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 25.5N  98.0W    45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
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