[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 040549
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 040549 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.AVIATION...UPDATED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AFT 09Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND CONVECTION WITH ISOLD VLIFR IN
DENSE FOG. LYH AND DAN MAY HAVE MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND LWB COULD
HAVE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS
MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 1047 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006)

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA BUT WILL
NOT REACH THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNIGN AREA UNTIL AFT 07Z. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT AND ALSO ADDED FOG IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 739 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006)

AVIATION...

STILL IN A VERY MOIST AIRMAS TONIGHT. LYH AND DAN WILL HAVE MVRF
FOG AFTER 06Z AND LWB WILL AGAIN HAVE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY BUT CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO BODY OF TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 642 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006)

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF RAIN BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND MSAS AND LAPS INSTABILITY ANALYSIS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 321 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS A GOOD CALL THROUGH 600 PM THIS
EVENING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER HIGH...IS HELPING TO TOUCH OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS ISOLATE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...IN APPROXIMATELY THE SAME
REGION AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL IS LIKELY.

WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...STARTING FIRST LATE TONIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...A LEE TROUGH HAS BEEN IN
PLACE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE PIEDMONTS OF VA AND NC.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE
FRONT IMPACTING SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...ADJOINING SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND THEN JUMPING INTO THE PRE-EXISTING LEE TROUGH BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MINIMUM OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS ON TIER OF COUNTIES EAST. WILL GO WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR
TOMORROW.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THE CONCERN IS JUST HOW
FAR DOES IT GO SOUTH BEFORE IT STALLS AND THEN WASHES OUT
COMPLETELY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF IT COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE IT IS TRYING TO PLOW INTO...I WILL
TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THAT IT DOESN/T MAKE IT AS FAR AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...AND KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO HELP
BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY LIFT BACK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO A
GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM SIDE TOMORROW IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN ANY LOCATIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONABLE READINGS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION ON TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...BUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO PUT INTO THE TAF OTHER THAN A PERIOD WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY AT SOME SITES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR FOG/HAZE.
LWB WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN TO LIFR WITH RIVER FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TOMORROW...BUT
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...SO DID NOT ADD INTO TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

$$

07




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