[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TONIGHT.  LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAVE TAKEN ITS
TOLL. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS NOW EXPOSED AND IS
LOCATED NEAR 20.7 NORTH 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AT 03/2100 UTC. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT.  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CHRIS  IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISPLACED...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE REGION S AND SE OF THE CENTER FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 67W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CYCLONIC
CURVATURE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 81W S OF 13N. SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 9N30W 7N50W AND INLAND THROUGH
SOUTH AMERICAN TO NEAR 5N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 13W-18W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 18W-29W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 31N89W.  10-15
KT SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF AIRMASS CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-92W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE S GEORGIA
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 82W-90W.  MORE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
80W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CENTERED
NEAR 20N95W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 90W-98W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
27N79W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER CUBA AND FLORIDA FROM 21N-32N E
OF 84W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SRN GULF DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOUT T.S. CHRIS THAT IS
NOW NW OF PUERTO RICO.  IN ADDITION... AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N
BETWEEN 70W-72W.  FURTHER W...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 84W-88W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY OVER
LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-73W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... ELY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W-90W.  EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA
DUE TO T.S. CHRIS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TOMORROW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE OF T.S. CHRIS NEAR
27N58W.  THIS SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE PUTS T.S. CHRIS
IS A RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO IS
INFLUENCING THE STORMS TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 28N40W
27N58W.  A 1027 MB HIGH REMAINS NE OF THE AZORES AT 41N21W.
LATEST UW-CIMSS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
DENSE DUST STRETCHING OUT TO 55W MAINLY N OF 15N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 73W-84W. FURTHER SE...
DISTINCT OUTFLOW IS NOTED ABOVE T.S. CHRIS.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS E OF T.S. CHRIS NEAR 24N60W MOVING W THAT IS
PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE STORM.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 50W AND THE
AFRICAN COAST.

$$
FORMOSA




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