[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CHRIS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
CHRIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND...AND ABOUT 120 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE
CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N 66.8W AT 03/1200 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO ARE NOT AS NUMEROUS NOW. THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT THIS MOMENT
THAN THEY WERE SIX HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS NEAR 22N60W ABOUT 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF T.S. CHRIS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
WITH THIS WAVE AND JUST THIS WAVE ALONE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WAY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...
EXIST FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER WESTERN
COLOMBIA ALONG 76W MOVING WEST 15 KT. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W/101W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15 KT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO TO 20N BETWEEN
100W AND 102W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W
ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THAT AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 12N29W 10N39W 8N43W 6N51W 6N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 4N TO
12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IN
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 TO 75 NM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
MEXICO. A SECOND ONE IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER EXISTS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE THIRD LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO BE THE
BERRY ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS 26N78W FEATURE. CYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTS WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N84W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 23N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE BAHAMAS LOW CENTER MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W ARE OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF POSSIBLE DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THAT AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. CHRIS NOW IS
COMPARATIVELY MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 380 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF T.S. CHRIS. THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF ANY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ON TOP OF T.S. CHRIS MAY BE MINIMAL. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 20N76W
15N83W...EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W BECAUSE OF
T.S. CHRIS. UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW RUNS FROM
VENEZUELA...ACROSS COLOMBIA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...AND PASSES ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 30N45W
TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 28N57W TO THE 22N60W
LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FILLING THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF THE 33N41W 22N60W TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
34N40W TO 31N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N43W TO
22N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 23N59W 24N55W 27N50W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS THROUGH 33N31W TO 27N40W TO 21N50W. A RIDGE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N63W
AND GOES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

$$
MT


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