[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF T.S. CHRIS IS LOCATED NEAR 19.9 NORTH
64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115 NM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS AT
02/2100 UTC. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
KT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IS 50 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS
STILL SHOWS ABOUT 10KTS OF SHEAR OVER CHRIS...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST INTO AN UPPER COL REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHICH IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 39W S OF 18N IS
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE
TURNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER FORMING NEAR 13N39W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 73W MOVING
W AT 15 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
70W-75W...TO INCLUDE OVER LAKE MARACAIBO.  THIS WAVE WILL MOST
LIKELY PRODUCE WEATHER OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE E PACIFIC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 96W/97W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY NOTED IN THE EAST
PACIFIC WATERS TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 12N25W 10N40W 4N50W 5N60W.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 16W-20W THAT MAY BE THE
FIRST SIGNS OF A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER SE ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 18W-26W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
29N87W.  10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO.  10 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W.  A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF AIRMASS CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 87W-105W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-84W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE GULF HAS MOSTLY ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N100W...
WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N77W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE REGION IS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WHICH IS
AFFECTING THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. GUSTY WINDS CONVECTION IS
N OF 18N BETWEEN 62W-65W. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING EAST THROUGH THE YUCATAN
AND NW CARIBBEAN A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS A DRY/STABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF T.S. CHRIS NEAR
27N65W.  THIS SURFACE HIGH PUTS T.S. CHRIS IS A RELATIVELY HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO IS INFLUENCING THE
STORMS TRACK.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 25N57W.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOTED
ALONG THE TROUGH.  FURTHER E... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE AZORES AT 39N23W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
21N-32N BETWEEN 70W-83W. TO THE EAST...DISTINCT OUTFLOW IS NOTED
ABOVE T.S. CHRIS.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 22N38W AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 50W AND THE AFRICAN COAST.
02/12Z UW-CIMSS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
DENSE DUST STRETCHING OUT TO 45W MAINLY N OF 15N.

$$
FORMOSA



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