[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CHRIS HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF
THIS TROPICAL STORM IS NEAR 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 135 MILES...EAST OF ANTIGUA AT 01/1200 UTC.  T.S. CHRIS IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THE CLOUD TOPS REACH AT LEAST
50000 FEET AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REACH -78C.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. LINGERING PRECIPITATION STILL IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE OTHER TWO AREAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 22N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.
SOME OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF AND AROUND T.S. CHRIS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE ARE MIXED
WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 23W
AND 30W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT OVER VENEZUELA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM THE HONDURAS COAST TO 20N EAST OF 83W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W
INCLUDING COVERING THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 17N16W 12N26W 10N30W 8N42W 13N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. THE 26N101W LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO HAVE COMBINED ITSELF WITH THE REMNANT OF THE SECOND
LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO...WHICH WAS COVERING THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. STILL NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE AREA. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF WATER JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FOURTH LOW CENTER...
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING A SMALL AMOUNT OF AREA IS
ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA. A FIFTH LOW CENTER IS OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE BIGGEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR
26N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER GOES FROM CUBA TO 30N
BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM EAST TO SOUTH AROUND THE LOW CENTER'S
CIRCULATION...FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. A SECOND
TROUGH COMES FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N70W TO 32N72W TO
29N76W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE WATER IN BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW GOES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL THE
STRONG DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS WEAKENED AND NOW ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 16N
TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.  MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 32N31W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N45W TO A 1021 MB
HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N63W TO 26N74W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP
LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
46W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM
ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N45W TO 25N44W TO THE 22N54W LOW CENTER
WHICH IS NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W...WITH A TROUGH FROM IT
TO 26N38W AND 21N45W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W TO AFRICA.

$$
MT


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