[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Aug 1 01:28:44 CDT 2006

AXNT20 KNHC 010625
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS 16.5N 58.8W AT 01/0600 UTC...
ABOUT 175 NM/325 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. THE DEPRESSION
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR
22N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 18N TO
25N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CUTTING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF THE
DEPRESSION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N25W 10N28W 4N28W
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W
AND 30W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W
SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT OVER VENEZUELA. NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA OF THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/86W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST
FROM THE HONDURAS COAST TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM BELIZE TO 20N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 17N16W 13N20W 11N26W 10N30W 8N41W 13N53W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 23W...AND WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N30W 6N37W 10N46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS
INLAND NEAR 26N101W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. REMNANTS OF A SECOND
LOW CENTER...WHICH 24 HOURS EARLIER HAD BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
POSSIBLY ARE BEING ABSORBED BY THE FRINGES OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 26N101W LOW CENTER. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW STILL REMAINS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
TEXAS COAST...AND REACHING INLAND TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A THIRD
LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF WATER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FOURTH LOW CENTER...WITH A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION COVERING A SMALL AMOUNT OF AREA IS ON TOP OF WESTERN
CUBA. A FIFTH LOW CENTER IS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE BIGGEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERS IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 25N72W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER GOES FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND
75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS EXIST FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W 25N71W 22N72W. A SECOND TROUGH COMES FROM
A 1010 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N71W TO 32N72W TO 29N76W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE WATER IN BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW GOES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W COVERING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE MOUCHOIR
PASSAGE...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS
FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER
BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS
INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
IT GOES FROM A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N26W TO 32N32W
TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N46W TO 28N66W...BROKEN UP A BIT
BY THE 34N71W 29N76W AND 28N69W 22N72W TROUGHS...AND CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N/28N...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS IN A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W
TO 30N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N54W BEYOND 32N48W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N45W
TO 25N44W TO THE 22N55W LOW CENTER WHICH IS NORTH OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 31N37W...WITH A TROUGH FROM IT TO 26N38W AND 21N45W. THIS
FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W TO AFRICA.

$$
MT

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