[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W...FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 6W-10W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 16W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER FLORIDA ALONG 80W.  WINDS
ARE FROM THE E TO SE 10-15 KT E OF 87W...WHILE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 87W.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 92W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE N GULF N OF 26N.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT A SURFACE
LOW PRESENTLY OVER N TEXAS TO EXTEND A COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS
COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS TO E
CUBA ALONG 23N73W 21N78W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA IS IN FACT VOID OF ANY CONVECTION.  AN
AREA OF INLAND N COLOMBIA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 73W-75W. TRADEWINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT EXCEPT N
OF N COLOMBIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED MOVING NE.
EXPECT N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N69W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S TO E CUBA ALONG 32N66W 26N70W 21N78W.  A 1032 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 39N41W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN
65W-80W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 60W-63W.  A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-55W. IN THE TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA



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