[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W EQ40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 8W-11W....AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 30W-33W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 31W-34W...
AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N80W 25N90W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
OF SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  10-15 N WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SELY FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 95W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 90W-110W.  THE E GULF E OF 90W HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TO CUBA AND THE W ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA TO
INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 73W-75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
72W ESPECIALLY THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.  THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ZONAL WLY
FLOW.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 13N.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
TO BE OVER S CUBA SATURDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 27N76W 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 74W-75W.  MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
FRONT FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 67W-70W.  A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N40W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 24N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. IN THE
TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W...
WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA



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