[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230936
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N11W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W...TO 1S40W
AND 1S50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 2W AND 5W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 8W AND
11W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 5S TO 6S
BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 7S TO 7N EAST OF
50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE AREA
OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N118W AT THIS TIME. THE
TROUGH WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW CENTER DIGS TO THE SOUTH ALONG
33N118W 28N117W 22N112W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MOVES INLAND OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...IN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER INTERIOR MEXICO MORE OR LESS ALONG
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THIS RIDGE...PRETTY MUCH
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N99W 26N101W 29N102W...ALL THE WAY INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR 35N102W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. OUTFLOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE REACHES 90W IN THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE REST OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE FLOW CHANGES ONCE
IT REACHES FLORIDA...AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 27N84W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N84W AND CONTINUES TO 23N88W.
THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN
24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN
GULF LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 23/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST
ALL THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM ITCZ THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS FROM 5N TO
8N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOWERS FROM
CURRENTLY ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EL SALVADOR NEAR
12N TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N BETWEEN 87W IN HONDURAS
AND 94W IN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 74W...MOVING WESTWARD
IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH EXISTED EARLY FROM CUBA
TO PUERTO RICO HAS ENDED. IT IS POSSIBLE THE BAHAMAS TROUGH MAY
DIG A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY RE-GENERATE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...COMBINING WITH
WHATEVER REMNANT INSTABILITY THAT MAY EXIST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 23N75W BAHAMAS TROUGH.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE IS IN PLACE BETWEEN 60W
AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
32N67W. A RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO PUERTO
RICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC EAST OF
60W...STILL IN ACCORD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER/TROUGH WITH
A 1003 MB GALE CENTER WAY NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N54W...AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N50W TO
18N57W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THIS DEEP LAYER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N49W TO 17N48W...AND THROUGH
AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS AT
A LOW CENTER NEAR 33N9W...ABOUT 275 NM SOUTH OF THE PORTUGAL
COAST...CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N29W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 18N EAST OF 32W. A 1005 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR
33N9W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1028 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 38N28W TO 30N35W 18N45W.

$$
MT








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