[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W 1N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N90W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER S GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA
ALONG 32N83W 28N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 82W-84W MOVING E.  ELSEWHERE...ELY ONSHORE
SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 96W-98W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY NWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF DUE TO AN
APPROACHING RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA...AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 23N.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY
MORNING WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 14N AND E
OF 80W.   10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E OF 75W TO INCLUDE E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  SAN
JUAN RADAR DEPICTS THE SHOWERS WELL.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS
MOVING INLAND TO 85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 85W...FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N68W.  THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W
24N52W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N31W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
26N41W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 75W-85W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 65W-75W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-65W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  A TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  IN THE
TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W...
WHILE ELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO BE ALONG 32N40W 25N50W SUNDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION E
OF FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA





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