[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W 1S45W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 350-450 NM TO
THE N OF THE AXIS W OF 25W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS E
OF 25W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE W COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 7W FROM 3S-4N.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THE GULF WITH A
STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE S OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. THE ONLY AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN THE EXTREME
N GULF COAST WHERE A SQUALL LINE...WHICH LIES 200 NM AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...RUNS FROM THE AL/MS BORDER OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TO 29N90W. THIS LINE OF TSTMS IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES FAIR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME BROKEN CLOUD
COVER W OF 93W N OF 23N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS.
LIGHT S/SSW SFC WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES
REMAINS IN THE W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE S
CENTRAL U.S. WITH MOVE SEWD AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE TO 26N89W IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND PULL N OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE EPAC OFF THE W COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N91W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAILING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH A FEW TRADE WINDS SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SEA. MORE IMPRESSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER AND NEAR THE LAND
AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A FEW STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE NE
COAST OF THE ISLAND MOVING WWD. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT. SIMILAR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE TOPOGRAPHIC AREAS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION THRU THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME MORE ESPECIALLY N OF THE
COLUMBIAN COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE RELAXING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO THE NE U.S. AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH LIES IN THE W BAHAMAS
ALONG 78W FROM 26N-28N. BROKEN CLOUDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THIS FEATURE. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND HAS
CARVED OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM 50W-70W N OF
22N. A SWLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 43W-50W. AT THE
SFC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N51W
27N55W THEN AS A WEAKENING SFC TROUGH TO 23N62W. A FEW THIN
BANDS OF CLOUDS AND WEAK SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE FRONT. MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE AT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH.
FARTHER EAST...SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 39N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE HIGH TO 24N47W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 17N45W TO BEYOND
32N45W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES E OF 28W N OF 22N. DRY/STABLE AIR
COVERS MUCH OF THE E ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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