[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 1N35W INTO S AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 40W AND W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.  MID/UPPER RIDGING IS GENERATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS.  AS SUCH...SHOWERS
ARE SCARCE WITH NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT E INTO
THE W ATLC LATER TODAY WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRAILING WESTWARD
FROM S FLORIDA TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEK UNTIL A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OVER THE W ATLC DROPS SWD AFFECTING FLORIDA TUE AND WED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A BIG WEATHER MAKER AT THIS POINT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH S EXTENT AFFECTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO BELIZE.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CLIPS
THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.  CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...AN E/W ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE AREA OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM S AMERICA IS PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WATERS ARE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE ATLC.  OWING TO A WEAKER THAN USUAL ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ELY TRADES ARE RATHER WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC EARLY
IN WORK WEEK.

ATLC...
A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A TROUGH W OF 50W AND RIDGE E OF
50W. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WHERE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM
32N45W TO 23N55W. THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF THE THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND THE COLD
FRONT.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED FURTHER S
WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
WHICH TRAILS SWD TO PUERTO RICO.  SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO
THE E ATLC.  ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS
PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. OVER THE E
ATLC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE AZORES TO 19N50W IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE TRADES
ESPECIALLY E OF 40W.  OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING E/W FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
W AFRICA NEAR DAKAR.  STRONG MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS IS KEEPING THE ITCZ RATHER INACTIVE.  A STRONG W
AFRICAN DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE E ATLANTIC WATERS BUT
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS


$$
RHOME


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