[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011822
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT APR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 2N20W...THE EQUATOR AT 30W...2S40W 2S47W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
10W AND 14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
3N28W 3N36W 2N44W 2N49W 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN STILL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WATERS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...PUSHING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
THIS FLOW HAS PUSHED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WAS MORE TO
THE WEST 24 HOURS AGO...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
ROUGHLY ALONG 89W/90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS
MOST OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND A BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...THANKS TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH STARTS OUT
FROM AN ATLANTIC 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N64W JUST
NORTH OF BERMUDA...TO 29N81W TO EAST TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW HIGH
CENTER LIKELY TO FORM IN THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY ALLOWING
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WESTERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS RANGE FROM 50 KT TO 75 KT ACCORDING
TO THE 01/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PERSISTS...FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHEASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND EXITING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO 24N/25N AND 43W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 16N
WEST OF 72W. CLOUDS AND RAIN STILL ARE FOUND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM A 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 23N47W TO A SECOND 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N57W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 19N66W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO
RICO...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 15N70W. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS FOUND
ACTUALLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS FROM
19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM 17N...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...TO 20N FROM ONE END OF
HISPANIOLA TO THE OTHER ONE. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLOUDS AND RAIN STILL ARE FOUND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
RUNS FROM A 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
23N47W TO A SECOND 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 22N57W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N66W JUST
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...AND CONTINUING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS FOUND ACTUALLY NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 39N41W...SUPPORTING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT GRAZES THE AREA NEAR 29N53W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHES 31N46W. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W TO THE SOUTH OF THE 39N41W LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER AFRICA FROM 26N4W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR
21N7W TO 15N12W 3N20W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
TROUGH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF IT FROM 3N TO 13N. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 30N
EAST OF 60W.

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net