[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS EARLIER AND
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED E OF THE WAVE NEAR 19N74W. THIS AREA
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 15N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N45.5W DRIFTING WNW. THE LOW IS
BENEATH UPPER S FLOW PREVENTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE 14N43W-19N45W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 24N MOVING W 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 20N FROM OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ACROSS MEXICO MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N21W 11N38W 13N43W THEN ALONG
11N53W 12N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W AND FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N-7N
ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 28W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER W MEXICO COVERS THE GULF W OF
89W ADVECTING VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE GULF N OF 23N W OF 86W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W WITH AN TROUGH EXTENDING
S ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO REMAIN MOISTURE LADENED S OF 23N WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W
SW TO 24N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 E OF THE
LOW/TROUGH FROM 26N TO THE FLORIDA COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER FLORIDA
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N82W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N86W AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HAITI
NEAR 19N74W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
GREATEST INTENSITY S OF HAITI FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN JUST ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 13N E OF 67W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 60W-68W
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER FLORIDA
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 27N80W NE TO 33N78W. AN UPPER HIGH IS SE
OF THE CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER HAITI AND COVERS THE W
ATLC FROM 67W-77W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
30N56W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE
OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS GENERATING THE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW
TO 25N60W. AN UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NEAR
22N40W WITH A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N40W. AN UPPER
LOW IS MOVING S OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 7N39W DISRUPTING THE
RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S FROM THE NE ATLC N OF
18N E OF 32W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 23N25W. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS DIVIDED BETWEEN THE W
AND E ATLC. A 1018 MB HIGH IS SE BERMUDA NEAR 28N63W. THE E ATLC
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N39W TO 22N50W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net