[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUN SEP 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF CUBA WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N.  VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH
SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.  THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  A SLOW MOVEMENT TO
THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE
WED/EARLY THU.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
76W-80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 14N MOVING W
15 KT.  THERE COULD BE A WEAK LOW ELONGATED E-W ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10.5N AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE AND QUIKSCAT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT N OF
12N.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 21N WITH A 1009
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  SLY SHEAR
CONTINUES OVER THE WAVE... KEEPING THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE NRN END FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 43W-47W.  MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER
S ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 20N MOVING W 15
KT.  THERE IS NOT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS.  THE POSITION IS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL TURNING SEEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO S OF 19N THIS EVENING.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N30W 10N35W 14N45W 10N50W
10N60W.  IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 17W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 25N89W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE TROUGH.  A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR
26N94W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W ENHANCING
EVENING TSTMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  ANOTHER SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N96W.
THE NW GULF HAS ANTICYCLONIC NE FLOW... WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO A CIRCULATION OVER N MEXICO.  EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SPECIAL FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN WEATHER
PRODUCER IN THE SEA.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 67W-75W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-77W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S
MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N AND W OF 80W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W.  ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 12N AND E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W TO HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N52W 26N55W
23N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 55W-62W.  A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-45W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
74W-80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N57W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE E CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W.  EASTERLY WINDS ARE THUS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 18N FROM W AFRICA TO 50W...GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

$$
FORMOSA


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